Obama rarely does better than his poll numbers, sometimes falling a little shy. Then there's the Bradley effect for black candidates, to cast a little doubt on the polls. But with VA still around 7-9% toward Obama, NC and MO now battleground states, this could be a landslide. Early polls showed Obama won %70 of first-time voters, compared to the 2004 election when the numbers barely leaned toward Kerry.
There's a good article on 538 regarding the Bradley effect as recently discussed in Salon--basically the guy cherry picked his stats to argue for the so called Bradley effect. The 538 guy's take was that it (Bradley effect), at least as applied to Obama, is diminished compared to previous black pols, and that the Salon article was bullshit. Whatever the case, we'll have to wait and see.
Yeah, I don't think the Bradley effect wil be in full effect, but Obama's numbers are rarely under. Maybe some bradley effect numbers were cherry-picked, but I certainly remember the Wilder effect as we call it in VA. America's first elected black governor did a lot better in the polls than the polling booth. Wilder was up by 10, even in exit polls, but only won after a recount. Larry "poll master" Sabato calls the VA a red-tinged tossup. I'm gonna throw my hat in with RVA mayor Wilder and say that VA will show a "reverse Wilder effect" with Obama, with military wives and others polling red but voting blue. Of course this is all just about white voters and VA and NC have a whole lot of new voters.
Of course the most damning poll recently was when Vegas pushed Obama to a -700 bet. Vegas odds are adjusted based on who is betting (obviously a shitload of Obamanos). since voting has begun in some states, many places have pulled the wager, otherwise it's time to go bet, err. vote.
5 comments:
should be McCain't
This one: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
is a little more accurate.
But alas, as the cliché goes, it ain't over til it's over.
Obama rarely does better than his poll numbers, sometimes falling a little shy. Then there's the Bradley effect for black candidates, to cast a little doubt on the polls. But with VA still around 7-9% toward Obama, NC and MO now battleground states, this could be a landslide.
Early polls showed Obama won %70 of first-time voters, compared to the 2004 election when the numbers barely leaned toward Kerry.
There's a good article on 538 regarding the Bradley effect as recently discussed in Salon--basically the guy cherry picked his stats to argue for the so called Bradley effect. The 538 guy's take was that it (Bradley effect), at least as applied to Obama, is diminished compared to previous black pols, and that the Salon article was bullshit. Whatever the case, we'll have to wait and see.
Yeah, I don't think the Bradley effect wil be in full effect, but Obama's numbers are rarely under.
Maybe some bradley effect numbers were cherry-picked, but I certainly remember the Wilder effect as we call it in VA. America's first elected black governor did a lot better in the polls than the polling booth. Wilder was up by 10, even in exit polls, but only won after a recount.
Larry "poll master" Sabato calls the VA a red-tinged tossup. I'm gonna throw my hat in with RVA mayor Wilder and say that VA will show a "reverse Wilder effect" with Obama, with military wives and others polling red but voting blue.
Of course this is all just about white voters and VA and NC have a whole lot of new voters.
Of course the most damning poll recently was when Vegas pushed Obama to a -700 bet. Vegas odds are adjusted based on who is betting (obviously a shitload of Obamanos). since voting has begun in some states, many places have pulled the wager, otherwise it's time to go bet, err. vote.
Did I mention I can't sleep?
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